Standard Reach
Target-before-loss probability
Production Monte Carlo model using historical joint asset returns and 10,000 simulated paths.
ProductionAEQUYN / QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH PLATFORM
Quantitative intelligence, with the evidence in view.
Inspect the models, their operating status and the evidence behind them. Production systems, experimental challengers and pending calibration are separate by design.
STANDARD REACH: PRODUCTION CHAMPION
01 / MODEL REGISTRY
One production champion. Multiple research questions.
The registry communicates operating status, not a league table of attractive results. Model promotion requires reviewed evidence and is never automatic.
PRODUCTIONStandard ReachMonte Carlo · current champion
EXPERIMENTALPathfieldResearch challenger
EXPERIMENTALStateFlowTransition-based challenger
CALIBRATIONWithheldInsufficient matured live forecasts
Outcome Field
Probability across assumptions
A bounded research view across targets, loss boundaries and horizons using consistent underlying paths.
ResearchBreakpoint
Model robustness
A limited search for supported condition changes that could materially weaken an experimental outlook.
ExperimentalOutcome Gradient
Model sensitivity
Tested-condition sensitivity where numerical and evidence checks are stable. Sensitivity is not causation.
ExperimentalScenario Intelligence
Conditional analysis
Market and currency scenarios with explicit assumptions, kept separate from observed data and standard saved Reach.
Available + evolvingVerified Reach
Live calibration
Withheld until enough matured real forecasts support calibration. Historical research forecasts do not count as live experience.
Pending calibration02 / HISTORICAL MODEL EVIDENCE
Matched 30-day research sample.
A retrospective comparison of 45 paired observations. These figures are not live performance, general superiority evidence or a promise of future calibration.
| MODEL | STATUS | BRIER | CALIBRATION ERROR | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Reachpathfield-bootstrap-1.0.0 | Production | 0.1585 | 0.0878 | 45 |
| Pathfield | Experimental | 0.1612 | 0.1484 | 45 |
| StateFlow | Experimental | 0.1716 | 0.1656 | 45 |
Source: AEQUYN outcome-intelligence tournament and model research documentation. Historical simulations and matched research origins; not matured live forecasts.
03 / MODEL TRACK RECORD
Measure against experience, when experience exists.
The workspace Model Track Record compares predicted probabilities with observed outcomes after expiry. Without sufficient matured outcomes, it reports that calibration is pending rather than substituting historical research.
Create an account to use ReachRESEARCH DISCIPLINE
Unavailable is a valid result.
Verified Reach, Breakpoint and Outcome Gradient can be withheld when evidence, numerical checks or calibration are insufficient. No unsupported performance claim replaces a missing result.
Open the research library