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How AEQUYN models your outlook
Aequyn Reach
The modeled probability of reaching your selected target before crossing your selected loss boundary, within your chosen horizon. Standard Reach is the production champion. It uses historical joint asset returns and 10,000 simulated paths. It checks daily closes, so intraday movements and gaps can produce different real outcomes.
Aequyn Breakpoint
An experimental robustness measurement: how much supported modeled market conditions would need to change before experimental Reach falls below its defined threshold (currently 50%). It searches a limited set of changes. It is not a safety rating or a promise to limit losses.
Aequyn Outcome Field
Explore how modeled probabilities change when you change the target, loss boundary or horizon. The field uses the same underlying research paths to make those comparisons consistent. It is separate from your saved standard Reach.
Aequyn Outcome Gradient
Shows which tested conditions the model is most sensitive to. This is model sensitivity, not proof that a condition causes returns. Estimates are withheld when the evidence or numerical checks are unstable.
Aequyn Verified Reach
Only available after enough matured real forecasts exist to support calibration. Until then: Calibration pending — insufficient matured forecasts. Historical research forecasts never count as live experience.
Experimental Pathfield and StateFlow
Research models using historical conditions and transitions. They remain experimental and do not replace Standard Reach. The latest matched historical 30-day comparison contained 45 observations and did not justify promotion. No model is promoted automatically.
Outlook and context
The 30-day Outlook uses historical returns to simulate 10,000 portfolio outcomes. Macro, FX, news and regional information are shown separately with sources and timestamps. News or macro interpretation does not silently change the simulated return. Currency conversion is distinct from native asset performance.
Paper operation and limitations
Strategies, backtests and paper fills are simulations governed by deterministic limits. Models do not place real-money trades. Historical samples, changing markets, stale data and simplified costs can make estimates unreliable. Continuous monitoring requires an authorized running worker; a briefing generated on a visit is not evidence of continuous coverage.
Current valuation references
Portfolio calculations use an eligible current trade. If a trade is old or absent, a valid bid/ask quote no more than two minutes old can supply an explicitly labeled indicative midpoint; spreads above 5% are excluded. This is not an executable price. Outside regular stock hours a bounded, recent last-session observation may be used with its age shown. When no eligible observation exists, current calculations are withheld. Saved forecasts retain the exact observations and do not update with the market.
Market data
Current stock quotes use Alpaca IEX, not a consolidated US stock feed. Crypto uses Alpaca market data. Source timestamps and stale-data checks apply. Provider availability and entitlements limit coverage; public display and redistribution require separate permission.
Review and requests
No operator identity, customer-support address, retention schedule or legal jurisdiction has been approved in this draft. The owner must supply these before inviting users. Contact details must not be fabricated.
Beta limitations: no account-deletion self-service is implemented; the owner must establish a verified request and deletion process covering authentication, portfolio records, model archives, paper activity and backups. Legal retention exceptions must be documented.